As Sky Sports News showed Pep Guardiola’s record against his former clubs after FC Bayern’s demolition of Barcelona, assuming that his side would triumph over Lyon, I had to ask myself, why? Lyon, unbeaten in their last 2 games against Man City, were 11/1 underdogs. Why? The Premier League may be the richest and best marketed league in the world, but that shouldn’t breed such hubris. Let’s take a look at how Lyon ‘upset’ the odds to send Manchester City tumbling out of the Champions League quarter finals. 

In the 2018/19 Premier League season, Manchester City conceded 23 goals. This season, they have conceded 35 - it doesn’t take a statistician to work out where their main problem lies. They failed to adequately replace Vincent Kompany, and not only did that affect their quality at centre back, it also exacerbated issues in midfield. Fernandinho’s guile, defensive nous and world leading ability to constantly foul without getting booked meant that he could regularly nip attacks in the bud. Kompany’s athleticism and intelligence often meant that he could bail them out when their high line was exposed, similar to Joe Gomez and Virgil Van Dijk at Liverpool. 

I’m not going to waste anyone's time talking about Stones or Otamendi; I respect you too much for that.

This season, their glaring weakness at the back has seen Fernandinho drop into the backline, and new signing Rhodri take up his position. Rhodri is still adapting from Spanish football, and I suppose will improve with time, but City look so much easier to get at with him in midfield. So effectively, due to their inability to replace Kompany in one position, City have been hurt in two.

In addition to all that, Lyon have beaten this City game before. Last season, in two group stage games they won one and drew won, ‘winning’ 4-3 on aggregate. Cornet scored in both games last season, and he scored again today. Guardiola said he played 3 at the back because he thought his team had a weakness defensively in the wide areas...and he was right. That didn’t stop Kyle Walker playing Ekambi onside, and when the ball fell perfectly for Cornet, his finish was superb, curling the ball round Ederson and just inside the near post. 

Guardiola’s major decisions didn’t pay off at all: 

• The high defensive line got exposed for all of Lyon’s goals

• His switch to 3 at the back backfired, as it limited City’s creativity in midfield

• His decision to bench David Silva, Bernardo Silva, Mahrez and Foden was shown to be an overly cautious one and meant City’s play in the final third was unimaginative

Guardiola’s tinkerman approach to the biggest European nights has always baffled me. In the Premier League they have a fairly settled formation and style of play, and yet on the biggest stage he feels the urge to spring surprises, which inevitably do more to harm his own team than the opposition. City’s double playmaker system with David Silva and De Bruyne has brought them great success on the domestic scene, and his unwillingness to trust this tried and tested formation on the biggest European nights may in fact be the reason for their downfall. That they improved immediately when Mahrez came on should be unsurprising, and further evidence of the mistake he initially made. His hand in their wonderfully crafted equaliser showcased the best of himself, Sterling and De Bruyne.

Lyon meanwhile, have had a brilliant Champions League campaign so far. To defeat Juventus over two legs and Man City in a one off game shows  how good this Lyon team are in cup competition. In Denayer, Marcelo and Marçal they have solidity at the back. In Cornet they have a player of great skill and defensive diligence on the left. In midifield Guimarães and Aouar combine fluidly while also competing physically. Up front, Ekambi offers selfless running, while Dembélé has physicality and predatory instincts, and Captain Depay has that x factor which puts defences on edge whenever he has the ball. This is a team that knows how to get the best out of themselves on the biggest stage and make the opposition struggle. 

Now Lyon can look ahead to a huge Semi final clash vs Bayern Munich. They will be massive underdogs heading that game but I doubt that will phase them. They absolutely have the pace and ability to worry Bayern Munich’s high line, and they have demonstrated their ability to frustrate the opposition. With that said, Sterling’s miss of the season contender played a huge part in the game, and this Bayern team will absolutely be more clinical. I have to say it is hard to look past a Bayern win, but if any team can do it this year, why not Lyon?